Twelve years ago, as part of my blog published at the time by El Confidencial in Colombia, I asked myself to imagine the papal conclave through a marketing lens, analyzing the Catholic Church as if it were a global brand facing competitive pressures and strategic choices. My conclusion back in March 2013 was that the new Pope would be an Argentinian cardinal, although I picked the wrong one. Jorge Bergoglio had publicly asserted that he did not want to be Pope…which goes to show us not to believe everything we hear, as the ways of the lord are inscrutable.
This week marks again the beginning of one of the most anticipated global events. Not the World Cup or the Olympics. It’s the moment when 133 elderly, celibate men gather to elect a new spiritual leader for over 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide. If you liked the movie, this is going to be even better…Welcome to the Conclave 2.0!
Ever since I was a kid, I’ve been fascinated by the Conclave — one of the oldest democratic processes in the world, rich in politics, tradition, and spectacle. It’s a moment of major change for the Church: for young Catholics, it often means the replacement of the only Pope they’ve known (mine was Paul VI); for older generations, it's a rare shift inside one of the most stable, conservative institutions on Earth.
But what if the Vatican’s marketing department (yes, there actually is one!) got to choose the next Pope? Let’s put on our marketing hats (or maybe our papal tiaras) and see where this takes us.
Market Analysis - Competition
Let's start with the basics. Christianity still accounts for about 31% of the world’s population, according to Pew Research Center (2023), down slightly from 33% in 2010. Muslims have grown to 25%, Hindus hold steady around 15%, and Buddhists around 6%. Non-religious populations now represent about 16%, a sharp rise in Western nations.
Within Christianity, Catholics make up about 50% today (down from 55% in 2010), meaning they represent roughly 15% of the global population (down from 18%). While Catholicism remains the largest single Christian denomination, evangelical movements and non-denominational churches are growing faster, especially in the Global South.
Growth rates tell an important story: Muslims are growing at 2.0% annually, Hindus at 1.8%, and Christians overall at 1.3%, with Catholicism slightly lagging at around 1.1% growth — compared to 1.3% in 2013.
Catholicism is still the market leader, but that high post is being challenged by growing competitors. Externally, Muslim have the highest rate of growth, but let’s remember Muslims are also divided, mainly among Shia and Sunni, and tend to be geographically concentrated.
Most important, within its own market segment Catholicism is losing share to more dynamic competitors that are presenting a brand of religion probably more in-tune with where religious consumer psychographics are.
Takeaway: To succeed, the Church needs to accelerate growth and regain market share. Others are chipping away from its piece of the pie.
Regional Segmentation
Key to reigniting growth is to understand how regional differences affect the analysis, and the impact they could have. Let’s look at the different regions and see what we learn.
- Latin America: Holds about 39% of the world's Catholics, down from 42% in 2013.
- Europe: Now about 22% of global Catholics, versus 24% a decade ago.
- Africa: Massive growth — now 19% of Catholics, up from 14%.
- Asia: Holds 12%, a slight rise.
- North America: Stable around 8%.
Latin America remains the Church's largest stronghold but is showing signs of erosion, especially toward Evangelical and Pentecostal movements. Europe remains big but also declining. Meanwhile, Africa is the Church's growth engine, and Asia presents a huge, underpenetrated market. North America seems non-consequential (neither big nor growing), especially if we consider the big financial and legal issues in the US.
If we plot these regions on a classic BCG matrix:
- Star: Africa (high growth, increasing share)
- Cash Cow: Latin America and Europe (high share, no growth)
- Dog: North America (low share no growth)
- Question Mark: Asia (high growth, low share)
Africa and Latin America is where the action is. The obvious focus should be in Africa, where the growth is coming from, but it still is not a mature market. Latin America has scale, tradition, share, but can it turn around growth against the Evangelicals?
On the other hand, should we rule out Europe or Asia? Europe is a market to protect due to its size, history and relative share. Focus should be on retention here. Asia is the future, a market to “invest” in, with some strong anchors in the Philippines and India, and huge potential in China.
Another important aspect is that the P&L of the brand is not doing that well. In 2023 the Vatican run a deficit of 83.5 million Euros. Europe and North America are large contributors, which gives them important weight in the process. There is a need to ensure that these markets are not alienated, while bringing new faithful that will help support the Church’s mission.
Takeaway: The new pope needs to be one that primarily has strong appeal in the developing world to drive growth, but he also needs to generate enthusiasm in the developed world to stop the bleed.
Product Analysis
Now, let's look at our "product." Should we focus on our more traditional product line, where most of our volume is today, or bet for a more innovative approach that can counter more aggressive competitors that are eroding our market share?
The Catholic "brand" has essentially two product development routes:
- Traditional Catholicism – Focused on conservative liturgy, top-down hierarchy, pro-life, anti-divorce, slow and cautious change in the Church.
- Modern Catholicism – A Church adapted to the times, focused on social justice, digital engagement, outreach to others.
After the long Papacy of John Paul II and the election of Benedict XVI , the traditionalists dominated. However, there was a strong tension that exploded after all the scandals of the early 2010s and led to the election of Pope Francis in 2013. Today, after Pope Francis’ more open pontificate (more emphasis on human rights, climate change, LGBTQ outreach, religious inclusivity and decentralization), there is a visible 3-way split:
- Traditionalists want a "return to order" – The Church has deviated from its core brand values, and that is what is driving the decline.
- Progressives want "acceleration" – A reformed modern Church is the only way to stay current and grow.
- Moderates want a “middle way” – There is a way to be relevant and evolve rooted on tradition but fueled by hope, the “Francis Effect”.
To add complexity to the question, let’s look at the consumer. Are consumers trending “retro” (one could argue Evangelicals represent a conservative side of Christianity and are winning by doing it in a more relevant way) or do they want something “cool” and “forward-looking” (like some protestant churches that ordain women and accept LGBTQ faithful)? The answer is probably more complex than it seems. In general, there has is a global trend towards polarization, some moving towards more conservative positions while some reclaiming a more liberal approach that considers the social advances of the last 100 years.
Takeaway: Being the Church a “universal product” at its core, it needs to walk a thin line, so it does not alienate a large portion of its faithful. A “middle way” seems to be the right approach until it is proven wrong.
Strategic Options
From a marketing perspective, the Vatican's "CMO" would probably frame the choice between three strategies:
1. House in Order
Focus: Consolidate traditional bases, protect the core. Reposition behind “Tradition rooted in faith” as engine for growth. Bring power back to Rome.
Ideal Candidate: A traditionalist, restoring "discipline."
Potential Candidates:
- Cardinal Peter Erdo (72 years) archbishop of Budapest. Highly intellectual and a leading voice of for the traditionalist. Not a hard-liner, but may lack charisma.
- Willem Jacobus Eijk (71 years) archbishop of Utrecht. Loyal to Benedict XVI and a strong critic of Pope Francis.
- Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (65 years) archbishop of Kinshasa. An interesting conservative from our star region, Africa. Vatican outsider openly opposed Francis’ approach to LGBTQ and divorced Catholics but committed with social justice and inter-faith dialog.
2. Leap Forward
Focus: Target growth markets, embrace change, decentralize, modernize the Church teachings.
Ideal Candidate: A “liberal” Pope with strong links to Africa or Asia, signaling a bold global shift.
Potential Popes:
- Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67 years). Former Manila Archbishop, now in Rome; Young, charismatic, multicultural. Was already a young contender back in 2013. Tainted by poor management of Charitas, the Church’s global charitable organization.
- Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (66 years). Archbishop of Luxemburg. Jesuit just like Pope Francis. A European multiculturalist with progressive views, especially towards women and the LGBTQ community.
3. Evolution Without Revolution
Focus: Continue Pope Francis work. Careful modernization without alienating conservatives. Balanced approach to bringing back some discipline while not discouraging local churches.
Ideal Candidate: A pragmatic diplomat with strong ties to Pope Francis. Someone palatable to European and South American cardinals, with enough support among moderate conservatives.
Potential Popes:
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70 years). Italian. Secretary of State. Held posts in Latin America and Africa. Considered a diplomatic heavyweight. Traditional but savvy. A more disciplined moderate Francis.
- Cardinal Peter Turkson (76 years): A Vatican insider from Ghana. Multilinguist, progressive on climate and economy but rooted in orthodoxy. Was a considered a contender back in 2013.
- Cardinal Charles Bo (76 years) Archbishop of Yangon. Very close to Pope Francis, especially on social justice, human rights and peace, but considered an orthodox in matters of faith. Has managed to stay away from cultural wars.
- Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (66 years): Archbishop of Marseille. Born in Algiers of Spanish descent is seen as a link between Europe and Africa. An expert in migratory issues and interfaith dialog.
- Other: Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (70 years), Pierbattista Pizzaballa (60 years)
Analysis
The most important decision the Vatican needs to make is what type of product they want to be moving forward.
Although a leap forward may be aspirational, it is not a realistic option as the risk is too high. Pope Francis did move the agenda forward, but to be honest, it was more form than actual substance. The next Pope will have to bring some intellectual and financial discipline, and a total break with tradition will put all that at risk, opening the door for dissent and infighting.
Going back to the old traditional product does not feel realistic either. Pope Francis changed the expectations of Catholics around the world. He opened the “brand” to debate and dialog, making it more authentic and interesting. He showed us a different tone and manner, more relatable, more approachable. Think about it, after you experience Amazon Prime it is impossible to look back to a world without “instant free” delivery. If the outpouring of support for Pope Francis during his funeral is any sign, it seems very hard that the Church can walk back. From a practical perspective, 79% of the 133 voting cardinals were selected by Francis. I do not see 89 of them voting for this option.
I think the pragmatic marketing option is to continue evolving the product. However, there is a lot to do. The product is doing fine, but not great. Pope Francis gave a spark, but growth is lagging, and market share has still been shrinking. Marketing discipline needs to be reestablished. A thoughtful and solid incremental approach is what is needed today.
The next question is whether we want a transitional product that allows us to define better where the ball is going, or if we want a to go into full product design now. All depends on how much of a burning platform we believe we have. I would argue that Pope Francis already started a transition that someone need to see through. Some would argue it was the wrong transition to the wrong product (the traditionalists). However, there is an urgent need now to have a clear proposition in market. Let’s learn from our time in market, let’s listen to some of the ideas coming from the right and the left, let’s bring some discipline to our go-to-market strategy and fully test where this approach takes us.
This means we need a candidate that brings continuity, discipline and is pragmatic enough to ensure execution. This needs to be someone who has the credibility to build bridges. With traditionalist and Modernist. With old world Europe, influential Latin America and growing Africa. Last, this probably means someone who is neither too young nor too old. The sweet spot would be around 75 years.
Conclusion
In 2013, the marketing analysis suggested an emerging-market Pope would be ideal, probably Argentinian — and indeed, Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Pope Francis) emerged as a perfect "crossover" product.
In 2025, the dynamics are even sharper. Africa and Asia have gained weight; Europe has continued its decline; Latin America is still key. There is a real case for a non-European Pope again — but traditionalists, still powerful, will resist a radical shift. In order to get the votes, some compromise would have to be achieved.
There is a need for “Evolution without Revolution”: a smooth transition with someone in his mid 70s who is non-European. The model points to either Peter Turkson or Charles Bo, both 76. I would also argue that Pietro Parolin, although Italian, can be seen as an internationalist, with strong ties in Latin America and Africa. He is also the obvious choice for continuity. Zuppi is “too Italian”. Pizzaballa and Aveline are too young. I am not sure if Charles Bo, coming from tiny (in Catholic terms) Myanmar has the clout to align 90 cardinals to vote for him. That leaves me with Turkson and Parolin, both Vatican insiders, both well connected.
Personally, I would love to see a black Pope taking the seat of Saint Peter to steer a more universal church. A Pope that can give us a message of hope rooted in faith, looking forward but respectful of the past. I would also love to see him dispel the conspiracy theory based on Saint Malachy’s visions that the next Pope (depends how you are counting) will be the “black” Pope, the anti-Christ leading the Catholic Church into apostasy triggering the end of days.
However, odds favor Parolin, especially if the cardinals align quickly behind a continuity agenda. Who knows. In marketing — and in life — despite our rigorous thinking and analysis, it also takes some enlightenment (in this case from the Holy Spirit) to reach the right answer. We shall see soon enough…
Question for readers: If you were the Vatican CMO, who would you choose as the next Pope? Share your thoughts below!
Sources:
- Pew Research Center: "The Future of World Religions" (2023 Update)
- Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA), Georgetown University (2024)
- Vatican News and Associated Press reports on College of Cardinals (2024)
